Indian economy
“Improvement in economic activity over next few quarters is likely to push the current account back into deficit,” said Standard Chartered’s Sahay. “Lower commodity prices and weak global demand are likely to negatively affect remittances inflows and services exports, weighing further on the current account balance.”
India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield surged on Monday following the government’s decision to sharply increase market borrowing amid a major hit to the economy and public finances from the coronavirus pandemic. The government plans to borrow Rs 12 lakh crore ($160 billion) in the fiscal year to March 2021, up from the previously budgeted Rs 7.8 lakh crore, to cushion the blow from the pandemic, it said on Friday.
Indian economy to grow at 9.5% in next fiscal: Fitch Ratings 10 Jun 2020After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial year.
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P Chidambaram on Friday hit out at the BJP-led government for not releasing the IIP numbers for April 2020 and wondered if it would lock them up in a safe vault to be opened after 20 years. "Economy is in safe hands, says the FM. It is in such 'safe' hands that the government will not release the IIP numbers for April 2020," the Congress leader said.
“I would say about 75 per cent of the GDP was wiped out in April and about 65 per cent in May. Exports, investment and consumption, all three engines of growth went into a tailspin,” says Kumar.
The study says India’s absolute GDP is likely to struggle to even come back to the 2019-20 level by 2023-24, which is the last year of this government’s current term. This is the same thing Kumar has said.“As things stand, and the government retains the 2020-21 expenditure budget for 2021-22 as well, it is likely that 2021-22 will witness a GDP growth rate of -8.8%. This is a frightening thought since it means that the country could experience a full-blown depression – the first in our history as an independent nation,” says Sen.The Indian economy was already in a bad shape, reeling under the long-term effects of Demonetisation and a hasty implementation of an ill-conceived GST plan. COVID-19 came as the proverbial Black Swan to hammer the nails into India’s economic engine.
Veteran economist Arun Kumar in fact thinks the contraction of GDP in the months of the lockdown has been even more severe.“I would say about 75 per cent of the GDP was wiped out in April and about 65 per cent in May. Exports, investment and consumption, all three engines of growth went into a tailspin,” says Kumar.Kumar goes further in saying, “India would be the first country in modern history to face a depression. It would take at least three to four years to emerge out of it.”“In the current fiscal, the GDP is set to contract by at least 30 per cent. My estimate is that from Rs 204 lakh crore, our GDP will come down to Rs 130 lakh crore. Tax to GDP ratio will fall from 16 per cent to 8 per cent. In such a situation, it would be difficult for the government to pay salaries or finance the defence budget.”
India’s benchmark 10-year bond yield surged on Monday following the government’s decision to sharply increase market borrowing amid a major hit to the economy and public finances from the coronavirus pandemic. The government plans to borrow Rs 12 lakh crore ($160 billion) in the fiscal year to March 2021, up from the previously budgeted Rs 7.8 lakh crore, to cushion the blow from the pandemic, it said on Friday.
Indian economy to grow at 9.5% in next fiscal: Fitch Ratings 10 Jun 2020After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial year.
At ThePrint, we invest in quality journalists. We pay them fairly and on time even in this difficult period. As you may have noticed, we do not flinch from spending whatever it takes to make sure our reporters reach where the story is. Our stellar coronavirus coverage is a good example. You can check some of it here.
P Chidambaram on Friday hit out at the BJP-led government for not releasing the IIP numbers for April 2020 and wondered if it would lock them up in a safe vault to be opened after 20 years. "Economy is in safe hands, says the FM. It is in such 'safe' hands that the government will not release the IIP numbers for April 2020," the Congress leader said.
“I would say about 75 per cent of the GDP was wiped out in April and about 65 per cent in May. Exports, investment and consumption, all three engines of growth went into a tailspin,” says Kumar.
The study says India’s absolute GDP is likely to struggle to even come back to the 2019-20 level by 2023-24, which is the last year of this government’s current term. This is the same thing Kumar has said.“As things stand, and the government retains the 2020-21 expenditure budget for 2021-22 as well, it is likely that 2021-22 will witness a GDP growth rate of -8.8%. This is a frightening thought since it means that the country could experience a full-blown depression – the first in our history as an independent nation,” says Sen.The Indian economy was already in a bad shape, reeling under the long-term effects of Demonetisation and a hasty implementation of an ill-conceived GST plan. COVID-19 came as the proverbial Black Swan to hammer the nails into India’s economic engine.
Veteran economist Arun Kumar in fact thinks the contraction of GDP in the months of the lockdown has been even more severe.“I would say about 75 per cent of the GDP was wiped out in April and about 65 per cent in May. Exports, investment and consumption, all three engines of growth went into a tailspin,” says Kumar.Kumar goes further in saying, “India would be the first country in modern history to face a depression. It would take at least three to four years to emerge out of it.”“In the current fiscal, the GDP is set to contract by at least 30 per cent. My estimate is that from Rs 204 lakh crore, our GDP will come down to Rs 130 lakh crore. Tax to GDP ratio will fall from 16 per cent to 8 per cent. In such a situation, it would be difficult for the government to pay salaries or finance the defence budget.”
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Some cheer for Indian economy: $500 billion forex reserves, fifth .... (1970). Retrieved on July 17, 2020, from https://theprint.in/economy/some-cheer-for-indian-economy-500-billion-forex-reserves-fifth-largest-in-the-world/453529/.
indian economy: Latest News, Videos and indian economy Photos .... (1970). Retrieved on July 17, 2020, from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/topic/indian-economy.
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